References

Anders, Therese, Christopher J. Fariss, and Jonathan N. Markowitz. 2020. “Bread Before Guns or Butter: Introducing Surplus Domestic Product (SDP).” International Studies Quarterly 64 (2): 392–405.
Anderton, Charles H, and John R Carter. 2001. “The Impact of War on Trade: An Interrupted Times-Series Study.” Journal of Peace Research 38 (4): 445–57.
Babst, Dean V. 1964. “Elective Governments: A Force for Peace.” The Wisconsin Sociologist 3 (1): 9–14.
Barbieri, Katherine, Omar M. G. Keshk, and Brian Pollins. 2009. “Trading Data: Evaluating Our Assumptions and Coding Rules.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 26 (5): 471–91.
Blattman, Christopher. 2023. Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace. Penguin.
Braumoeller, Bear F. 2013a. “Is War Disappearing?” In APSA Chicago 2013 Meeting.
———. 2013b. The Great Powers and the International System: Systemic Theory in Empirical Perspective. Cambridge University Press.
———. 2019. Only the Dead: The Persistence of War in the Modern Age. Oxford University Press.
Braumoeller, Bear F, and Austin Carson. 2011. “Political Irrelevance, Democracy, and the Limits of Militarized Conflict.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 55 (2): 292–320.
Carroll, Robert J, and Brenton Kenkel. 2019. “Prediction, Proxies, and Power.” American Journal of Political Science 63 (3): 577–93.
Carter, Jeff, and Charles E Smith Jr. 2020. “A Framework for Measuring Leaders’ Willingness to Use Force.” American Political Science Review 114 (4): 1352–58.
Choi, Seung-Whan. 2025. “Do Alliances Deter War?” Foreign Policy Analysis 21 (4): oraf027.
Coppedge, Michael, John Gerring, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Staffan I. Lindberg, Jan Teorell, David Altman, Michael Bernhard, et al. 2020. “V-Dem Codebook V10.”
Cunen, Céline, Nils Lid Hjort, and Håvard Mokleiv Nygård. 2020. “Statistical Sightings of Better Angels: Analysing the Distribution of Battle-Deaths in Interstate Conflict over Time.” Journal of Peace Research 57 (2): 221–34.
Dahl, Robert A. 1957. “The Concept of Power.” Behavioral Science 2 (3): 201–15.
Drezner, Daniel W. 2022. Theories of International Politics and Zombies: Apocalypse Edition. Princeton University Press.
Ellis, Cali Mortenson, Michael C. Horowitz, and Allan C. Stam. 2015. “Introducing the LEAD Data Set.” International Interactions 41 (4): 718–41.
Fazal, Tanisha M. 2014. “Dead Wrong?: Battle Deaths, Military Medicine, and Exaggerated Reports of War’s Demise.” International Security 39 (1): 95–125.
Fearon, James D. 1995. “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 49 (3): 379–414.
Gibler, Douglas M, and Steven V Miller. 2024a. “The Militarized Interstate Confrontation Dataset, 1816-2014.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 68 (2-3): 562–86.
———. 2024b. “The Militarized Interstate Events (MIE) Dataset, 1816–2014.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 41 (4): 463–81.
Gochman, Charles S, and Zeev Maoz. 1984. “Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1976: Procedures, Patterns, and Insights.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 28 (4): 585–616.
Goemans, Henk E., Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, and Giacomo Chiozza. 2009. “Introducing Archigos: A Dataset on Political Leaders.” Journal of Peace Research 46 (2): 269–83.
Johnson, Jesse C, and Brett Ashley Leeds. 2011. “Defense Pacts: A Prescription for Peace?” Foreign Policy Analysis 7 (1): 45–65.
Jones, Daniel M, Stuart A Bremer, and J David Singer. 1996. “Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816–1992: Rationale, Coding Rules, and Empirical Patterns.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 15 (2): 163–213.
Kenwick, Michael R., and Roseanne W. McManus. 2021. “Deterrence Theory and Alliance Politics.” What Do We Know about War, 41–62.
Kinne, Brandon J. 2020. “The Defense Cooperation Agreement Dataset (DCAD).” Journal of Conflict Resolution 64 (4): 729–55.
Leeds, Brett, Jeffrey Ritter, Sara Mitchell, and Andrew Long. 2002. “Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions, 1815-1944.” International Interactions 28 (3): 237–60.
Marquez, Xavier. 2016. “A Quick Method for Extending the Unified Democracy Scores.” http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2753830.
Marshall, Monty G., Ted Robert Gurr, and Keith Jaggers. 2017. “Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2016.”
Miller, Steven V. 2022. “peacesciencer: An r Package for Quantitative Peace Science Research.” Conflict Management and Peace Science. http://svmiller.com/peacesciencer/.
Mitchell, Sara McLaughlin, and John A Vasquez. 2024. What Do We Know about War? Bloomsbury Publishing PLC.
Morgenthau, Hans J. 1978. Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace.
Mousseau, Michael. 2021. “The Liberal Peace.” What Do We Know about War, 141–57.
Oneal, John R, and Bruce M Russet. 1997. “The Classical Liberals Were Right: Democracy, Interdependence, and Conflict, 1950–1985.” International Studies Quarterly 41 (2): 267–93.
Palmer, Glenn, Roseanne W McManus, Vito D’orazio, Michael R Kenwick, Mikaela Karstens, Chase Bloch, Nick Dietrich, Kayla Kahn, Kellan Ritter, and Michael J Soules. 2022. “The MID5 Dataset, 2011–2014: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 39 (4): 470–82.
Pemstein, Daniel, Stephen A. Meserve, and James Melton. 2010. “Democratic Compromise: A Latent Variable Analysis of Ten Measures of Regime Type.” Political Analysis 18 (4): 426–49.
Pinker, Steven. 2012. The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined. Penguin books.
———. 2018. Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress. Viking.
ReidSarkees, Meredith, and Frank Wayman. 2010. Resort to War, 1816-2007. cq Press.
Singer, David J. 1987. “Reconstructing the Correlates of War Dataset on Material Capabilities of States, 1816-1985.” International Interactions 14 (1): 115–32.
Singer, J. David, Stuart A. Bremer, and John Stuckey. 1972. “Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820-1965.” In Peace, War and Numbers, edited by Bruce Russett. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications, Inc.
Spagat, Michael, Brennen Fagan, and Stijn van Weezel. 2024. “Underpowered Power Law Research and the Decline of War Question.”
Tuchman, Barbara W. 1994. The Guns of August: The Outbreak of World War i; Barbara w. Tuchman’s Great War Series. Random House Trade Paperbacks.
von Clausewitz, Carl. 2003. On War. Penguin UK.
Wagner, R Harrison. 2000. “Bargaining and War.” American Journal of Political Science, 469–84.
Williams, Miles D. 2025. “Aid for Non-Aggression.” Conflict Management and Peace Science, 07388942251388824.